From the two-year tenor all the way to 30-year, U.S. yields are below the current Fed funds rate of roughly 4.8 percent as markets have dramatically repriced the rates outlook.

Source: https://business.inquirer.net/393779/bank-relief-and-alibaba-plans-nudge-stocks-higher

Getting the Fed funds rate to 5% would mean only one more rate increase of 25 basis points.

Source: https://investorplace.com/2023/02/the-blistering-start-is-about-to-pause/

In this graphic, GS offers its view of expected Fed funds rate increases compared to what is currently priced in by the market.

Source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4570735-etf-reliable-portfolio-2022-update-and-2023-investment-outlook?source=feed_all_articles

Note in the chart above what doesn’t go crashing to earth in the wake of the banking problems: the Fed funds rate (crimson trendline).

Source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4615854-bonds-in-wonderland?source=feed_all_articles

Now for our estimates of the impact of increases in rates, given market expectations of more rate hikes to come, we estimate the effects of increases in the Fed funds rate to produce additional annual net interest income as follows.

Source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4570464-interactive-brokers-group-inc-ibkr-q4-2022-earnings-call-transcript?source=feed_all_articles

Paul Volcker proved that four decades ago when he pushed the real Fed funds rate north of 8.0% before he finally broke the inflationary momentum.

Source: https://www.lewrockwell.com/2023/05/david-stockman/why-grandma-yellen-must-be-forced-to-prioritize-spending/